CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-01-15T03:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-01-15T03:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23321/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the E/SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is an eruption and subsequent M6.0 flare from AR 3191 seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery starting around 2023-01-15T03:20Z. Opening of field lines is visible off the eastern limb in SDO AIA 171 at this time, and post-eruptive dimming appears around 03:45Z in SDO AIA 193. Arrival is characterized by a sharp increase in magnetic field components with B total reaching 15 nT. Solar wind speeds increased from 387 km/s at 2023-01-17T20:53Z to 488 km/s at 2023-01-18T02:08Z. Additional increases in density and temperature. Signature is still developing and analysis is ongoing. This arrival may also be associated with CME: 2023-01-14T21:36Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-01-17T21:10Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-01-17T03:21Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:
% Compiled module: EAM ************************************************************************************** Most pr. speed = 1024.0 km/sec The EAM version you are running is: v2 u_r = 1093.16 Acceleration: -2.83198 Duration in seconds: 171229.26 Duration in days: 1.9818201 ************************************************************************************** Acceleration of the CME: -2.83 m/s^2 Velocity of the CME at 1 AU: 608.2 km/s Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 17/01/2023 Time: 03:21 UT **************************************************************************************Lead Time: 52.12 hour(s)
Difference: 17.82 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2023-01-15T17:03Z
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